Unlike the other pages, this page includes performances from age 18.
How have javelin throwers performed through their careers against UK Athletics' performance funnel - and what share fell below it before their first Olympic/World medal?
The Futures Programme policy selects on "Position on the relevant Performance Funnel". Every season of every Olympic, World and European javelin medallist and finalist, against the bottom quarter (P25) for their age.
60% of Olympic/World javelin medallists fell below the funnel before their first medal, and 11% were below it for half or more of their seasons before then. For Olympic/World finalists the figures are higher still: 67% and 31%.
Vítězslav Veselý was below the funnel three seasons running at 19-21; he became World Champion in 2013. Magnus Kirt was the same at the same ages; World silver in 2019.
What it means for selection: deselecting a javelin thrower because they fell below the funnel makes no sense - most future medallists did.
Scope of data used in this analysis:
Share of each athlete's seasons from age 18 to their first medal (or first top 8) with a season's best below the P25 line for their age. Olympic/World athletes against the Olympic/World line, European against the European. Only falling short counts - throwing above the funnel never counts against anyone.
| Group | Athletes | 0% below P25 | >0% – 25% below P25 | 25% – 50% below P25 | 50% or more below P25 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | % | N | % | N | % | N | % | ||
| Olympic / World Championship medallists (1st-3rd) | 65 | 26 | 40.0% | 18 | 27.7% | 14 | 21.5% | 7 | 10.8% |
| Olympic / World Championship top 8 (1st-8th) | 150 | 50 | 33.3% | 27 | 18.0% | 26 | 17.3% | 47 | 31.3% |
| European Championship medallists (1st-3rd) | 48 | 19 | 39.6% | 12 | 25.0% | 10 | 20.8% | 7 | 14.6% |
| European Championship top 8 (1st-8th) | 116 | 30 | 25.9% | 26 | 22.4% | 26 | 22.4% | 34 | 29.3% |
The top 8 group includes the medallists. Each athlete is counted once per group.
Grey band: P25-P75 of season's bests by age for all medallists at the chosen championship type since 1986 (dotted line = median). Pick a championship to overlay its medallists (or top 8); the large dot marks the age and distance of the medal-winning (or final) throw. Each athlete's line covers their whole career, including seasons after that championship.
Overlaid in purple, using the same P25/Median/P75-or-age-best display mode as the medallists above. A GB & NI thrower who is also a medallist for the selected Championship may appear twice - that's expected.